Empire Rise: Spain

Chapter 204: The Second Economic Crisis

While compulsory primary education was being vigorously implemented in Spain, on the Balkan Peninsula, the smoke of war had already permeated the entire peninsula, covering all the ethnic groups living on this land.

Regarding the chaos and weakness within the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Government held a schadenfreude attitude. Russia even strongly supported several vassal states of the Ottoman Empire diplomatically, including Romania and Serbia, as well as countries like Montenegro, in resisting the rule of the Ottoman Empire.

Speaking of which, it is necessary to mention the previous Russo-Turkish War, that is, the contracts signed by various countries regarding the situation on the Balkan Peninsula after the Crimean War.

One of the provisions was that various countries required the Ottoman Empire to implement partial reforms in the Bosnia and Herzegovina region, including granting the people of these two regions the right to religious freedom, reducing taxes in these two regions, and carrying out tax system reforms, etc.

The Ottoman Government at that time expressed agreement and stated its willingness to implement the relevant reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

But good times did not last long. After the end of the Crimean War, not only did the Ottoman Empire’s reforms show no signs of progress, but it also became even more brutal in suppressing the uprisings and rebellions of various ethnic groups on the Balkan Peninsula.

This not only intensified the hatred between the various ethnic groups on the Balkan Peninsula and the Ottoman Empire, but also gave the European Powers, led by Russia, an opportunity to participate in the situation on the Balkan Peninsula.

Under Russia’s strong support and call, many countries and ethnic groups on the Balkan Peninsula united, expressing dissatisfaction with the Ottoman Empire one after another, and joining the armed rebellion.

Currently, on the Balkan Peninsula, apart from the Kingdom of Greece, all the remaining countries are vassal states of the Ottoman Empire. Any single vassal state poses no threat to the Ottoman Empire, but if all the vassal states unite, with Russians providing support from behind, it would already be a considerable threat to the Ottoman Empire.

In early July, the armed rebellion between the Ottoman Empire and the Balkan ethnic groups had already entered a standoff phase. The Ottoman Empire possessed advanced weapons and equipment from the United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the weapons and equipment on the rebel ethnic groups’ side were no less inferior, all provided by Russia.

The Ottoman Empire had no tolerance whatsoever for the rebellions among these Balkan ethnic groups, and for these rebels, there was only one way to deal with them: using military power for cruel suppression.

In just the month of July, the Ottoman Empire mobilized troops multiple times to armedly suppress the rebellions of the Balkan ethnic groups, annihilating a total of hundreds of rebel forces, with over a thousand more affected, facing long prison terms.

Although the Ottoman Empire was relatively corrupt, behind the Ottoman Empire stood two traditional European great powers, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the British Empire, maintaining a significant lead in weapons and equipment.

Even if the Balkan ethnic groups actively participated in rebellions and armed uprisings against the Ottoman Empire’s brutal rule, they still could not pose too great a threat to the Ottoman Empire.

As long as this great power Russia did not personally intervene, the current situation on the Balkan Peninsula was acceptable to the Ottoman Empire.

This was also a problem that great powers including the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the United Kingdom were concerned about: whether the Russians would personally intervene? And participate in this conflict that had already attracted the attention of the entire Europe?

Whether to participate or not was a question worth considering for other European countries, but for Tsarist Russia, this question actually had an answer long ago.

There were two major conflicts between Russia and the European Powers: one was the conflict with the Austro-Hungarian Empire over the Balkan Peninsula, and the other was the conflict with the United Kingdom over Central Asia and East Asia.

These two major conflicts also related to another major shortcoming of Russia: although Russia’s territory was vast, it lacked natural ice-free ports.

Russia’s current three main estuaries faced the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the Sea of Japan, respectively.

The Sea of Japan was located in the Far East and provided no help to Russia’s layout in Europe. In such a situation, Russia’s estuaries in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea became particularly important.

But both of these estuaries faced the crisis of being blockaded by enemies. For Russia to go from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic Ocean, it had to pass through the straits controlled by Denmark and the North Sea waters controlled by the United Kingdom.

To enter the Indian Ocean or the Mediterranean Sea from the Black Sea, it also had to pass through the Straits of Constantinople controlled by the Ottoman Empire.

Solving the problem of the Baltic Sea estuary was impossible, after all, there were many neighboring countries in the Baltic Sea, including a great power like Germany, one of Europe’s five traditional great powers.

Even controlling the Baltic Sea would be useless; west of the Baltic Sea was the sphere of influence of the British, and the British Navy could still blockade the Baltic Sea.

In such a situation, the relatively weak Ottoman Empire became the only choice for Tsarist Russia to expand its estuaries, and also the reason why the Russo-Turkish War broke out multiple times.

For Alexander II, this was an absolutely unmissable golden opportunity, and also Russia’s best chance to extend its hand into the Balkan Peninsula and seek to control the Straits of Constantinople.

Speaking of Alexander II, the emancipation of the serfs reform he promoted still had a great impact on Russia. But at the same time, his reforms were not thorough, and Russia remained essentially that corrupt empire, only granted a brief extension of life.

Comparing the entire Russian Empire to a dam with water accumulation reaching the limit of its bearing capacity. Alexander II’s reforms were like raising the dam’s height by a few more meters, delaying the time for the dam to fill up by a few decades.

But the dam would still eventually fill up with water, and the moment it did would be the moment when the corrupt Russian Empire collapsed.

Currently, from the composition of troops and weapons and equipment on both the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia sides, Tsarist Russia possessed an absolute advantage.

As one of the European countries with the largest population, Russia’s standing infantry numbered a terrifying 720,000, and it possessed nearly 3,000 cannons, forming 16 armies distributed across Russia’s vast territory.

On the Ottoman Empire side, although it had undergone some reforms, the entire empire’s troops numbered just over 400,Compared to Tsarist Russia, which had over 3,000 cannons, the Ottoman Empire’s cannon count was only around 800, with a considerable portion being relatively outdated cannons.

However, considering that British aid was arriving continuously, in reality, the gap in weapons and equipment between the Ottoman Empire army and the Russian army would become smaller and smaller.

Russia’s 720,000 troops were dispersed across its vast regions, so the number of troops that could be deployed in the Balkan region was not large.

The Ottoman Empire was not much different. Although it claimed to have 400,000 troops, the troops deployed on the Balkan Peninsula were only around 280,000, with the remaining nearly 130,000 troops located on the Anatolian Peninsula, separated from the Balkan Peninsula by the Straits of Constantinople.

As time reached September 1876, the war between Serbia and Montenegro and the Ottoman Empire became increasingly deadlocked.

Yes, it was war. Serbia and Montenegro, which existed as vassal states, had already declared war on the Ottoman Empire a few months ago, with the reason for the declaration being to recapture the de jure land illegally occupied by the Ottoman Empire.

Seeing the flames on the Balkan Peninsula growing increasingly fierce, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the United Kingdom could only call on both sides to remain rational, while providing as much support as possible to the Ottoman Empire to ensure that the Ottoman Empire held the advantage in this war.

In just the month of September, the United Kingdom transported large quantities of weapons and equipment and grain materials to the Ottoman Empire, and the Ottoman Empire, relying on these weapons and equipment, fought back and forth with Serbia and Montenegro, and even held the upper hand in most cases.

These precious aids from the United Kingdom were like a lifesaver to the Ottoman Empire. Because as early as the end of last year, the Ottoman Empire had suffered a financial collapse due to a great famine on the Anatolian Peninsula, and was even unable to maintain its existing army.

On the Austro-Hungarian Empire side, while the war on the Balkan Peninsula was raging unusually fiercely, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was already considering how to handle it after Russia’s intervention in the war.

From the current available information, it would be difficult for the Russians not to intervene in this war, unless the United Kingdom directly announced help to the Ottoman Empire in suppressing the rebellion.

But this was obviously impossible. Unless there were sufficient interests, the British would not proactively join this war.

Even if the British were really willing to join this war, would it be a good thing for the Austro-Hungarian Empire? Probably not.

With the British personally intervening, the Ottoman Empire would definitely be able to end the suppression of the rebellion quickly, without worrying about the danger from the Russians.

But afterwards, the Ottoman Empire would definitely be infiltrated by the British, and it would not be so easy for the Austro-Hungarian Empire to infiltrate the Balkan region again.

It was precisely because of these reasons that the current Austro-Hungarian Empire was in a relatively ambiguous attitude. If anything, the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s attitude was more like hoping that both Russia and the United Kingdom, who wanted to participate in the situation on the Balkan Peninsula, would disappear entirely, leaving only the Austro-Hungarian Empire as the sole great power on this land.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire rarely maintained neutrality regarding the situation on the Balkan Peninsula, patiently waiting for the new round of diplomatic struggle between the United Kingdom and Russia.

At the same time, Franz Joseph I ordered the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s army to be on standby at any time, ensuring that the Austro-Hungarian Empire could intervene in the war on the Balkans at any moment.

Although the Austro-Hungarian Empire did not intend to interfere in this war, based on the principle of sharing the spoils, no matter who achieved the final victory in this struggle, it had to ensure that the Austro-Hungarian Empire could get a piece of the meat.

If Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire, then Franz Joseph I would choose to unite with the British, even threatening with war if necessary, to force the Russians to retreat, dividing the Balkan Peninsula into three parts, rather than letting the Russians annex it all.

If the Ottoman Empire defeated Russia, that would naturally be the best news. Not only could the situation on the Balkan Peninsula be maintained as it was, but it could also further frustrate the ambitions of the Russian Empire.

But the possibility of this idea was far lower than the first one. Although both the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia were weakening empires, the Ottoman Empire was clearly on the verge of collapse, while Tsarist Russia, though barely hanging on, was still a case of a skinny camel being bigger than a horse.

Since the end of the Franco-Prussian War, the war on the Balkan Peninsula might be the most sensational news in Europe in recent times.

Because of this, the Balkan Peninsula not only attracted the attention of the three great powers, but also attracted a large number of newspaper and media outlets as well as Europeans interested in news on this matter.

Spain was not idle during this period either. On one hand, it vigorously promoted the implementation of compulsory primary education, doing pilot work in the Catalonia and Madrid regions.

On the other hand, it secretly contacted the Ottoman Empire and Russia to seek export opportunities for Spain’s weapons and equipment.

In addition to weapons and equipment, other strategic materials including grain could also be sold. Spain’s environment in recent years had been relatively stable, with grain yield rising steadily, so exporting a portion of grain was not a problem.

Seeing that Russia and the Ottoman Empire on the Balkan Peninsula would not fight for the time being, Carlo also gradually began to pay attention to other matters, especially responses to the economic crisis.

Just as said at the cabinet meeting at the beginning of the year, according to estimates by the government and the finance department, there was a high probability of triggering a second round of economic crisis this year.

And facts proved it so. During February to March, the United Kingdom’s economy experienced a new round of fluctuation, which also prompted the outbreak of the second round of economic crisis.

Fortunately, Spain had prepared for this early, and the fluctuations of the economic crisis did not cause too serious an impact.

Of course, a major reason for this was that Europe was still experiencing the economic crisis.

The impact brought by the first round of economic crisis could only be said to have weakened, but the economic crisis itself had not ended. Up to the beginning of 1876, many European countries still had economies in shambles, with industrial production suffering relatively serious impacts.

In such a situation, although the second round of economic crisis affected many countries, compared to the first round of economic crisis, it was no longer fatal.

Those enterprises unable to withstand the economic crisis had already gone bankrupt in the first round of economic crisis, and the remaining resilient enterprises mostly had government help, so surviving the second round of economic crisis was naturally no problem.

If the countries most severely affected by the first round of economic crisis were Germany, the United States, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, then the countries most severely affected by the second round of economic crisis were the United Kingdom and France.

Britain and France, relying on their numerous colonies, persisted longer in the first round of economic crisis, and the impact of the economic crisis on industry and economy was far less severe than in other countries.

But after the second round of economic crisis began, even though Britain and France could rely on colonies to extract blood, they clearly could no longer hold on.

However, fortunately, the first round of economic crisis had bankrupted many enterprises with unstable foundations, so the impact of the second round of economic crisis was really limited, and for countries like Britain and France with extremely large economies and industries, it was negligible.

In the period when Germany and the United States were most severely affected by the economic crisis in the first round, over one-third of factories shut down, and nearly half of the workers faced unemployment crises.

And in the second round of economic crisis, the total number of shutdown factories in the United Kingdom added up to less than one-fifth of the total factories, and this was still the impact caused by the superposition of two rounds of economic crises.

Of course, for the British Empire, the impact of the second round of economic crisis was still very significant.

If there had been no second round of economic crisis, the British Empire’s support for the Ottoman Empire could have been much greater. But now, because the domestic industry and economy of the United Kingdom were also affected, the support for the Ottoman Empire was not great, and there was no intention at all of using troops to intervene in this war.